August began with a sharp correction before risk returned later in the month. Reuters and AP reporting confirms that negotiations concerning the Strait of Hormuz were active, while shipping remained constrained. The EIA’s August outlook also assumed severely constrained Hormuz shipments through August with a gradual September improvement.
| Date | NYMEX | ICE Brent | China INE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3 | Sep $80.34, -$4.33 (-5.11%) | Oct $83.77, -$4.16 (-4.73%) | 2609 ¥549.5, -¥0.4; night ¥540.3, -¥9.2 |
| Aug 12 | Sep $83.27, +$0.07 (+0.08%) | Oct $88.98, +$0.07 (+0.08%) | 2610 ¥548.1, +¥4.4; night ¥552.3, +¥4.2 |
| Aug 31 | Oct $85.76, +$2.36 (+2.83%) | Nov $90.49, +$2.39 (+2.71%) | 2610 ¥618.3, +¥26.0; night ¥637.2, +¥18.9 |
What this means for Group II buyers
For buyers comparing 150N with SN150 or 500N with SN500, crude direction is only one input. Group II availability, refinery production, inland logistics, ocean freight and RMB/USD movements can produce a different price path. Use the base oil market page for context and request a dated quotation for executable terms.
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